Publications

Papers & books.

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22 publications

Forthcoming

The Sound of Persuasion: Using Generative AI to Identify Gender Gaps in Political Influence

Ethan C. Busby, Lisa P. Argyle, Parker Davis, Joshua R. Gubler, Bryce Hepner, Christopher F. Karpowitz, Alex Lyman, Justin Olcott, Jessica R. Preece, and David Wingate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (forthcoming)

Summary & methods

Using real-time conversations with AI agents, this study separates voice-based gender cues from persuasive rhetoric and the topic of discussion. In this experiment, male- and female-sounding voices did not differ directly in persuasiveness; topic and participant gender were associated with differences in persuasion. The findings identify specific gender-related dynamics rather than establishing that gender bias is absent from political conversation.

Methods: randomized experiment, real-time voice conversations, generative AI, gender and persuasion

2025

Unheard Voices: The Importance of Intersectionality in Responsiveness and the Systematic Ignoring of Black Men by Elected Officials

Ethan C. Busby, Andrew Ifedapo Thompson, Tomo Vierbuchen, and Suzy Yi

Political Behavior

Summary & methods

A large-scale experiment with U.S. local elected officials finds that Black men were systematically ignored, regardless of the message they sent, highlighting the importance of intersectional theories of responsiveness.

Methods: field experiment, responsiveness

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2025

Do They Even Care? Empirical Evidence for the Importance of Listening in Democracy

Ethan C. Busby, Andrew Ifedapo Thompson, and Suzy Yi

Political Communication 42 (4): 556–575

Summary & methods

Citizens frequently define listening as fair consideration. A conjoint experiment shows that people respond positively when elected officials listen, even when other familiar predictors such as shared partisanship are held in view.

Methods: open-ended survey, conjoint experiment

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2025

Testing Theories of Political Persuasion Using Artificial Intelligence

Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, Alex Lyman, Justin Olcott, Jackson Pond, and David Wingate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122 (18): e2412815122

Summary & methods

Two survey experiments use generative AI to test theories of persuasion. AI-generated counterattitudinal messages changed some attitudes, but customization and interaction were not consistently more persuasive than a generic message.

Methods: preregistered survey experiments, large language models

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2025

Balancing Large Language Model Alignment and Algorithmic Fidelity in Social Science Research

Alex Lyman, Bryce Hepner, Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and David Wingate

Sociological Methods & Research 54 (3): 1110–1155

Summary & methods

The study compares aligned and unaligned open-source language models with human responses. It shows that alignment affects simulated attitudes in predictable ways and that model choice matters for social-science research.

Methods: benchmarking, silicon sampling

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2025

Introduction: Progress and Promise in Political Psychology

Ethan C. Busby, Christopher F. Karpowitz, and Cara J. Wong

Handbook of Innovations in Political Psychology, 1–9

Summary & methods

An introduction to a handbook on how political psychology can respond to democratic strain, technological change, and new questions about political behavior.

Methods: theory, research synthesis

2024

Populism and Misinformation

Nina Wiesehomeier, Ethan C. Busby, and D. J. Flynn

The Ideational Approach to Populism, Volume II: Consequences and Mitigation

Summary & methods

A chapter on how populism can create problems for democracy, including affective polarization, weakened institutions, and harmful policy responses.

Methods: theory, comparative research

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2024

The Ideational Approach

Ethan C. Busby, Angelos Chryssogelos, Eliza Tanner Hawkins, Kirk A. Hawkins, Levente Littvay, and Nina Wiesehomeier

The Ideational Approach to Populism, Volume II

Summary & methods

A chapter explaining the ideational approach to populism and its relevance for understanding contemporary threats to democratic institutions.

Methods: theory, comparative research

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2024

The Political Psychology of Cancel Culture: Value Framing or Group Identity?

Elle Diether, Suzy Yi, Lisa P. Argyle, and Ethan C. Busby

Political Research Quarterly 77 (4): 1130–1145

Summary & methods

Across survey data and experiments, partisanship strongly shapes how Americans understand and evaluate behaviors labeled cancel culture, while value framing has a weaker effect.

Methods: survey data, survey experiments

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2024

Changing Stereotypes of Partisans in the Trump Era

Ethan C. Busby, Adam J. Howat, and C. Daniel Myers

Political Science Research and Methods 12 (3): 606–613

Summary & methods

Comparing 2016 and 2021 responses, the study finds partisan stereotypes became less group- and issue-based and more focused on personal traits during the Trump era.

Methods: structural topic model, open-ended survey

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2023

Defending the Dog Whistle: The Role of Justifications in Racial Messaging

Andrew Ifedapo Thompson and Ethan C. Busby

Political Behavior 45 (3): 1241–1262

Summary & methods

Survey experiments examine how justifications can reduce the political costs of racialized messages while preserving support among racially resentful White respondents.

Methods: survey experiments, racial messaging

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2023

Leveraging AI for Democratic Discourse: Chat Interventions Can Improve Online Political Conversations at Scale

Lisa P. Argyle, Christopher A. Bail, Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, Thomas Howe, Christopher Rytting, Taylor Sorensen, and David Wingate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120 (41): e2311627120

Summary & methods

Evidence-based AI suggestions improved reported conversation quality, democratic reciprocity, and tone without systematically changing the content of conversations or policy attitudes.

Methods: large-scale experiment, AI intervention

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2023

Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples

Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Nancy Fulda, Joshua R. Gubler, Christopher Rytting, and David Wingate

Political Analysis 31 (3): 337–351

Summary & methods

The study proposes that language models can simulate specific human subpopulations when conditioned on detailed demographic backstories, while emphasizing the need to evaluate algorithmic fidelity carefully.

Methods: silicon samples, large language models

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2022

Perceptions of Extremism among the American Public and Elected Officials

Ethan C. Busby

Electoral Studies 77: 102472

Summary & methods

Americans and elected officials use ideas about spatial extremity and unwillingness to listen when defining extremism, but they often apply those standards unevenly across political camps.

Methods: surveys, conjoint experiments, open-ended responses

2021

Should You Stay Away from Strangers? Experiments on the Political Consequences of Intergroup Contact

Ethan C. Busby

Cambridge University Press

Summary & methods

A book-length study of how different forms of intergroup contact affect political attitudes, including when difficult communication produces backlash rather than harmony.

Methods: experiments, intergroup contact

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2021

The Partisan Next Door: Stereotypes of Party Supporters and Consequences for Polarization in America

Ethan C. Busby, Adam J. Howat, Jacob E. Rothschild, and Richard M. Shafranek

Cambridge University Press, Elements in American Politics

Summary & methods

The book shows that images of ordinary partisans—especially trait-based images—shape affective and ideological polarization, while instrumental views may create room for compromise.

Methods: open-ended survey, observational and experimental research

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2019

Framing and Blame Attribution in Populist Rhetoric

Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler, and Kirk A. Hawkins

The Journal of Politics 81 (2): 616–630

Summary & methods

Dispositional blame frames activate latent populist attitudes more than situational frames, with downstream consequences for candidate support.

Methods: survey experiments, framing

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2019

Pigeonholing Partisans: Stereotypes of Party Supporters and Partisan Polarization

Jacob E. Rothschild, Adam J. Howat, Richard M. Shafranek, and Ethan C. Busby

Political Behavior 41 (2): 423–443

Summary & methods

People describe partisans in terms of groups, issues, and traits. Trait-based stereotypes are especially associated with affective and ideological polarization.

Methods: open-ended survey, structural topic model

2018

Activating Populist Attitudes: The Role of Corruption

Ethan C. Busby, David Doyle, Kirk A. Hawkins, and Nina Wiesehomeier

The Ideational Approach to Populism, 374–395

Summary & methods

The chapter examines how intentional misconduct and corruption can activate populist responses, especially when corruption is understood as widespread.

Methods: laboratory experiments, comparative research

2018

Studying Framing Effects on Political Preferences: Existing Research and Lingering Questions

Ethan C. Busby, D. J. Flynn, James N. Druckman, and P. D’Angelo

Doing News Framing Analysis II, 27–50

Summary & methods

A review of framing-effects research that identifies strengths, limitations, and open questions about how political messages shape preferences.

Methods: research synthesis, framing

2018

Football and Public Opinion: A Partial Replication and Extension

Ethan C. Busby and James N. Druckman

Journal of Experimental Political Science 5 (1): 4–10

Summary & methods

A partial replication suggests that irrelevant events can affect some political attitudes, but the effect is constrained to particular outcomes and may be short-lived.

Methods: replication, experiment

2017

The Political Relevance of Irrelevant Events

Ethan C. Busby, James N. Druckman, and Alexandria Fredendall

The Journal of Politics 79 (1): 346–350

Summary & methods

An experiment finds that a sporting event can affect presidential approval, likely through mood, while emphasizing the importance of identifying when irrelevant-event effects occur.

Methods: experiment, replication

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For other work, see Google Scholar.